⚠️Global Unrest & The LA Market: Here’s My Take!

Two wars. One market. A lot of noise.

Right now, LA real estate is navigating two very real headwinds: a bruising global trade war and the conflict in Iran — both rattling everything from construction costs to buyer confidence. Neither is small. But before you spiral, here’s the headline: Los Angeles is holding up better than almost anywhere else in the country. Let me show you why.

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The Tariff Effect: It’s Already in Your Walls

Tariffs aren’t just a news story — they’re baked into the cost of every home being built or renovated right now. As of early 2026, the average U.S. tariff rate on imports is 12%. In real terms:

• Steel & aluminum: 50% tariff
• Kitchen cabinets & vanities: up to 25% tariff
• Cabinet prices overall: surged 20–25% since escalation began
• Renovation ROI: down an estimated 10–15% in tariff-affected markets

JP Morgan projects home prices will stall at 0% nationally in 2026. For a city already deep in a multi-year rebuilding effort after the Palisades and Eaton fires — surging materials costs hit at the worst possible time. LA County industrial sales dropped 57% year-over-year in Q1 as the Port of LA braced for slower trade flows from Asia.

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The Iran Conflict: The Invisible Tax on Confidence

Here’s the part that doesn’t get enough attention: war changes psychology — and psychology drives timing in real estate, for buyers and sellers alike.

The Iran conflict pushed inflation from 2.4% to 3.3% in a single month (April 2026 CPI). Mortgage rates that briefly hit 5.99% in February snapped back to 6.3–6.5% almost immediately. More than 65% of real estate investors now expect a negative market impact over the next 90 days (BiggerPockets April 2026). Even high-net-worth buyers who historically ignore rate fluctuations are now factoring geopolitical risk into their timing.

In LA’s luxury corridors — Brentwood, Pacific Palisades, Holmby Hills, Benedict Canyon — pending luxury sales fell 9.9% year-over-year. Post-fire, standard insurance carriers have largely pulled back from Very High Fire Hazard Severity Zones, leaving buyers navigating the California FAIR Plan or surplus lines carriers at $10,000–$60,000/year — a carrying cost that needs to be priced in before any offer, not after.

Both sides of the table are anxious. That’s the honest truth right now.

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Why I’m Still Optimistic and Determined About LA

LA is not — most markets. We are not Boise. We are not Austin. We didn’t run 40% during COVID and we’re not quietly correcting. LA is supply-constrained, globally desirable, and structurally insulated — drawing from domestic buyers, international capital (foreign buyer transactions in the U.S. jumped 44% year-over-year, with California as the #2 destination), and multigenerational wealth that doesn’t evaporate. It recalibrates.

The numbers prove it. LA County sales jumped +14.2% month-over-month from January to February 2026. Homes are still selling in a median of 32 days. Inventory sits at just 4.2 months of supply — well below a balanced market. Prices have not collapsed. Transactions are happening every day. The market is very much alive.

And for buyers who are financially positioned? This is one of the better entry windows in years. Motivated sellers. Thinner competition. More negotiating room. If your footing is solid and you can comfortably sit on your capital and the bank’s, it’s worth a serious conversation.

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The Most Important Decision You’ll Make Right Now

In a market like this, who you work with matters more than it has in years — and not just because of experience. Because of integrity.

With so much uncertainty, YOU need someone who will tell you to walk away from the wrong deal just as confidently as they’ll tell you to go all-in on the right one. Someone optimizing for your outcome, not their commission. Someone with the analytics, the process, and the honesty to cut through the noise.

There are a lot of ways to make a costly mistake right now — on the buy side and the sell side. The right advisor won’t just help you move. They’ll make sure you’re moving in the right direction.

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We are going to be just fine. LA has navigated recessions, wildfires, rate spikes, and global uncertainty before — and come out more valuable every single time.

If you want an honest, no-pressure read on what this all means for your situation — I’m here for you, always!

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